Coronavirus: South Africa – 1,000 deaths by 4th April (Prediction)


[5] [4] [3] [2] [1] So, you saw the title 1000 deaths by the 4th
of April in South Africa, 2020. I want to take you through about “how I came
up with this numbers” and it’s basically based on math and science. So I hate fake news like everybody else. This is a new kind of news, really. This is basically just sharing with you the
numbers that we have available and now to interpret those numbers. This one that you see on the screen now are
the subject that we’re gonna discuss. So, you can jump and check in the description
below. You can jump into, in the parts that you want,
but it would be better if you follow the whole process. First of all, this video has been recorded
today, it’s the 19th of March, 2020. The reason why I did this video is because
all the information that we get and the stats are based on official data and official data
is very far away from the real data. And the reason for that is that the official
data is based only on the people that get tested and they are positive. The real number, we will see it during the
video, can be 20 to 50 times higher. The data source that I used is downloadable
is the official one from a number of sources: link in the description. Let me take you through this journey with
this scenario. We know that the coronavirus Covid-19 spreads
at a factor of 2.5x, meaning that one person infects 2.5 people every day. Let’s assume that a passenger arriving at
the Johannesburg international airport is infected but doesn’t show any signs. He passes the thermal scans because he doesn’t
have a fever. Maybe he’s been infected few days before,
but he can already infect other people. So, first of all, other people in the plane
can be infected. But let’s start from just that one person. Let’s represent this person like a red dot
(this infected person) and then a non-infected person as a blue dot. Let’s bring in some population. There we go. And a timeline. Now in this timeline, I don’t want to put
dates just yet, because I just want to explain how the virus spreads. So we put it from day one, first infection
until two weeks (day 14) and that number “14” is very important. So in day 2, that person infects 2.5 people
(represent here by two dots, as an approximation). So in total we have 3.5 people infected. Day-three 10 people, day-four 25, day-five
64, day-six 162, day-seven 406, day-eight over a thousand people are infected. And now I ran out of dots. So let’s continue with maths without the dots. At the end of the 14 days, we have a total
population infected of almost a quarter million people. Let me put some real dates here. Let’s assume that the infection, after the
14 days, is the 15th of March and I’ll explain to you know why in South Africa, the 15th
of March is very important. So with almost a quarter million people infected
by one person only, that came in South Africa the 2nd of March. It’s important to say that this quarter million
people that hypothetically are infected on the 15th of March, they’re not detected by
the health system because 80% of them (we’ll see it just now) they are symptomatic or they
have very low symptoms. They just get some drugs at home, they feel
better, but they can still infect other people even if they get better. So these people will spread the virus to many
other people that will show up infected only two weeks later, meaning at the end of March. So at the end of this month,
Talking about infection… You need to have these handy nowadays. So why is the 15th of March important for
South Africa? Because that’s when, Sunday night, 15th of
March, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced to the nation about the 61 cases of coronavirus
detected in South Africa, officially, and the first measures taken by the government,
like closing certain ports of entry, closing the schools and so on. So these 61 people, some were travelers, others
were infected locally, but many, many others are not detected and they haven’t been picked
up by the health system. But let’s say they’re just 61 people. If these 61 people, they’ve been infected
14 days before, it means that in our simulation we didn’t have the 2nd of March a one person
creating a quarter million infected people, but we had 61 people infected. Again, it’s not that the 61 mentioned by the
President because those were foreigners or maybe they left, they’ve been quarantined,
so they didn’t spread it. But the initially these people spread it in
different ways. So we assume that the 2nd of March there were
way more than 61 people infected that started spreading at a 2.5x ratio. If that is true, the possible infected number
of people at the 15th of March is over 15 million people in South Africa. This is what maths and science say. Now, it’s not an exact science, so is this
number true? No, it’s not true. Why is it not true? First of all, only 50 to 80% of the population
is severely affected. So people can get better, not infect other
people. Not everybody contaminates 2.5x because they’re
going into self-observation, they get quarantined or they don’t have an active lifestyle or
they don’t go to crowded places. Some of the people that were picked up at
the beginning, they were quarantined and they went in self-isolation. Some of these cases (of the first 61) were
not person-to-person in South Africa, but they were travelers. So the number might be lower, but it’s still,
in my opinion, still in the millions. Now in this millions that we have already
today, 19th of March, 80% are symptomatic or they have very mild symptoms. So what number should we use? Because now I can’t give you an exact number,
the government cannot give us an exact number. No government can. Let’s take a conservative figure of 1.8x. So if we assume that the 2nd of March 10 people
were infected and they came into the country and they started interacting socially without
even knowing that they were affected, we get to a number at the end of March (27th of March)
of 97 million infected (and as you know, South Africa doesn’t have 97 million people… but
just to explain the trend) and 2.7 million deaths. This simulation is done with no countermeasures
in place, meaning that everybody keeps on interacting like the Coronaviruse never existed,
for one month, this number then will be actually quite true. It will grow until everybody is affected or
infected. But the fact is that the governments and people
start taking precautions and then the spreads that lowering down. That’s why we cannot use a linear number like
this one that is on screen now. But because until the 15th of March, there
was a no countermeasure or very, very little in the country, the number of 46,000 people
infected is probably real. And as you can see, there is also 1000 people
in the timeline (again, because it is linear and it’s calculated on a 3% on the infected
people) this number is real, but you need to move it 14 days after, or a number of weeks
after, because by the time that people are severely affected, they don’t die immediately. And people that die, they’re not always necessarily
picked up because if people die of natural causes, at the moment they are not tested
for Coronavirus. In Italy that has got big numbers, if people
die from cancer, from heart attack, from old age diseases, they are tested and they are
found positive. So until South Africa doesn’t test all that
people, we will not have real numbers. It can be that today already there are some
fatalities due to Coronavirus that are not detected and not tested. Okay. So, even with a conservative number, these
kind of stats don’t make sense, if you use the information that we have. So what should we use? Let’s see one of the countries that have been
affected the most, which is Italy. Let’s compare the Italian numbers, because
Italy is, of the Western world, is the country that has been more affected: per-million-people
is the one with most confirmed cases, and more more deaths. And the reason for that is because Italy has
been extremely transparent and they’ve been extremely active in monitoring after the started
having the first 200 cases and that’s why there’s so much data and it looks like it’s
picking up so quickly. But you will see that once all the other countries
will reach the critical mass on the respirators at the hospitals, so they cannot cope anymore,
then the real numbers will come up. So today, 19th of March, this is just started,
we have seen nothing yet. Why comparing Italy to South Africa? The population is similar: 60 million against
56, give it a take. Italy has got more elderly peoples, which
are susceptible to be affected severely by the virus, but South Africa has got more HIV-positive
people, by far (in the world it’s one of the top countries), which means that these people
has got an immune suppressed system and therefore they are more susceptible to have a severe
consequence with the virus. And also South Africa has got a lot of diabetic
people which are also very susceptible to the Coronavirus. South Africans use much more public transports,
like taxies, but in Italy they use to gather much more, in closer spaces, so I put that
one as comparable data. These are the official Italian numbers, from
the 21st of February until two days ago (17th of March), reaching a total amount of a recognised
official infected people of 31,506 and 2,530 deaths. Now remember, we need to check always the
14 days window. So if you take the 6th of March, which had
4,636 people infected, that means that those people were infected in the window of the
two weeks before. So that one that you see there in blue. If this a 4,600 people, that were detected
now, with the factor of multiplication of 1.8x, they could have infected already 21
million people, in a linear scale. Again, people in Italy now stay at home, nobody
goes around unless it’s an emergency. Restaurants are closed, and most shops are
closed, most factories are closed. So this has been largely contained. But the reason why we still see a peak in
Italy at the moment is because we are within the window of 14 days from the 6th of March,
when there were 4,000 cases. And these cases have been isolated now, and
all of that. So all countries and governments understood
that containment is the only solution. And this is something that in South Africa
at the moment is happening very mildly. They closed the schools and today they announced
actually that restaurants, bars, etc (selling alcohol) will close at 6 o’clock, but still,
the speed at which the decisions are taken by the government is the key, the number one
key of fighting this virus. And the moment that they designed to lock
down the country and have everybody at home, there’s going to be still 14 days before we
see how many people have been infected. So we understand that whatever official number
we see every day in every country and worldwide is much smaller than the real number of infected
people, even now in South Africa today. So how bigger is the real number compared
to the official numbers that we get? According to the data scientist Marco Visibelli
(you can find him in LinkedIn, you can see his post) in a report he published the 13th
of March, the real figures are 20 to 50 times higher than what is published online by the
official organisations. I want to show you now… I want to overlap the timeline of Italy, the
decisions that they took with the growth that is going to be similar to the South African
one, with the milestones translated into our timeline in South Africa. (I am in South Africa at the moment) 27th
of *February the Italian schools closed and at that time there were about *500 cases. (give it or take). So how many of those *500 contaminated 2.5x
people and created hundreds of thousands of infections. So that will be visible only 15 days later,
which is a few days ago. And that’s the spike that you see in the Italian
chart. So I matched the 62 cases of the 22nd of February
in Italy with the 61 cases of the 15th of March in South Africa. So that we can see a similar timeline and
we can evaluate what to expect (in South Africa). So the restaurants and non-essential shops
closes the 1st of March in Italy, which is expected to happen (if we follow the same
trend in SA) the 23rd of *March, meaning next week. The schools in South Africa, as we said, closed
the 18th. So they took precaution actually earlier,
well done South African government. Today the 19th (March 2020) they announced
that the restaurants and bars close at six o’clock. By the 28th of March in South Africa, we can
expect that Gauteng will lock down. Nobody goes in or out the Gauteng Province,
other provinces will follow the same example. There’s not going to be enough Covid-19 test
kits. We will see what is the storage that we have
in South Africa, but that can happen towards the end of March. And then way before the end of March, there
will be no street markets allow and similar gatherings. By the 1st of April, we will have the army
on the streets to regulate the flow of people. People will be asked to stay at home. Most businesses will be closed. Public hospitals will start reaching critical
occupancy. Unfortunately, I think that this will happen
before the 1st of April. So as I said, if we follow the same trend
as the Italian curve, the first 1000 official deaths will be the 4th of April. Although the real ones will be many more,
but they will not be detected because they will be seen as HIV fatalities or cancer or
any other natural reason. There will be no more national travels allowed. The border will be locked down so the whole
of South Africa will be locked down. South African citizens can leave home only
to buy groceries, to go to the pharmacy or for emergencies and serious reasons. By the 7th of April, if you follow the same
curve of Italy, ICUs reach maximum capacity in hospitals. So there’s not going to be enough respirators
to keep people alive. Remember that before China (a couple of days
ago: 13th March 2020), sent 31 tons of containers of equipment to Italy, in Milan they were
deciding who was leaving and who was dying. Because when they have people of different
age and they didn’t have enough respirator, they had to make the tough call: they had
to decide who was going to use the respirators. And then probably China will send equipment,
respirators, mask, kits, etc. They might do it before then (they sent it
already to Italy) it depends how urgent is going to be in South Africa and how many other
countries will be in the condition to need the kind of supply. By April 8th there will be 30,000 cases (official
cases). And remember the real cases are 20 to 50 times
more than what is in this chart. I was in Italy between the 21st and the 24th
(of February 2020) when the epidemic started. I was in Milan, I was in Veneto (the two areas
that had the major hit from coronavirus), and yes, I am in self-isolation and yes, I’ve
been tested and I am clear, my family has been tested and they are clear, so I’ve been
lucky. But I will share with you how the test for
Coronavirus went. So, subscribe to the channel if you want to
see the episode when I publish it in the next days. At the moment, the 19th of March, South Africa
is behaving like everything is normal. People at the store don’t wear a mask, it’s
very rare to find people that wear a mask or gloves. So, the epidemic at the moment is spreading
a lot (in SA). The hundreds of thousands of contamination
is happening now, because people are not doing enough to contain it, because they don’t see
it as a threat. In two weeks from now, so at the beginning
of April, when 20% of these people will go to the hospital (of the hundreds of thousands)
then is when people will say “Oh, we should start earlier.” So, the call with this video is: “start getting
protected now!”. I’m going to release a free course on how
to get protected from Coronavirus. So, again, subscribe to the channel, so you
get notified when I publish the course. In Italy at the time, when I was in Italy
(21-24th February), they were behaving exactly like South Africa is behaving today. They were careless, they weren’t paying much
attention, they said “Oh, this is something from China. It will never come here. It’s not going to affect us that match.”. And, today, you know what the numbers are
in Italy. So this is where South Africa is going to
land up in a couple of weeks, if you don’t take precaution now. Everybody must wear a mask, everybody must
wear gloves. Hygiene is priority number one, and speed
for the government to take action. Let’s see some of the data that we have available. As you can see, the majority of the infection
are mild, 80%, but they can still infect others. Panic is not going to help, but we need to
be aware of this. So take precautions. Wear a mask, wear gloves. The South African population is not taking
this seriously at the moment. If you see this video in the future, towards
the end of March or in April, I hope that I really was wrong. I really hope I was wrong. The government is reacting quickly. They should react even quicker than that. But so far I’ve been very impressed: President
Ramaphosa did an excellent speech the 15th of March, and they’re taking action very quickly,
but, they need to take (also) into account that people have to work and put food on the
table. So people that are more at risk are the elderly
ones. Italy has got, of course, a much older population,
compared to South Africa, but in South Africa, as I said, we have a very high population
of people that are immune suppressed or have immune deficiency and they are HIV positive. So the two things compensate. In terms of the conditions that are more affected
by the Coronavirus: number 1 is cardiovascular diseases, and something that is connected
to that is obesity. According to the South African Health Department,
70% of South African women are overweight and 40% of men as well. So this is something that will affect South
Africa a lot. In Italy keep into account that obesity is
lower, it’s at 36%. There are many people that’s got diabetes
in South Africa and that’s the second most highly targeted type of person that will be
affected. So why is the Covid-19 Coronavirus spreading
so widely and it became a pandemic worldwide. So as I was saying, you see where Covid-19
is, compared to other diseases, so, in terms of fatality rate, is very low. If you see the curve on the left (the orange
one) which has got a very quick and high fatality rate, that’s the one that will happen if people
don’t take precautions. So that’s the behavior that South Africans
are having at the moment (not wearing gloves and masks and going to crowded places). The strategy here, to beat the Virus, is to
wait until the vaccine is available, or the cure. It seems that the cure will be available before
the vaccine, but for the vaccine alone, we’re talking about October 2020, if you’re lucky,
if not the next year (2021). They are talking about human trial in different
countries *happening at the moment (they are practicing at the moment), but after that
they need to do a number of tests to see that it doesn’t have side effects and all of that,
to commercialise it. So it’s going to take much longer for us to
see it available for all of us. The blue curve instead is the outbreak with
protective measures as we all should do, the government should do, and the all us citizens
should do. And the reason for that is: the more we slow
down the virus, less people will die, less people will be affected and we get closer
to a vaccine. So what is the solution? All governments, and now specifically the
South African one, are facing a very hard challenge. The number one solution to stop the virus
is to isolate everybody. Absolutely, everybody. Nobody must have contact with anybody else. So that the virus basically exploit what it
needs to exploit within the people that have’ been already affected and cannot infect anybody
else and therefore is going to be beaten. But this of course is impossible because you
can’t ask everybody to stay at home and paralyse a country, nobody getting salaries and not
being able to put food on the table, and all of that. Also, remember ,Italy is a country that saves
a lot, privately. So typically an Italian person has got a means
to sustain himself/herself for a number of months. Most Africans go paycheck to paycheck, so
just one paycheck not paid and that can mean really hard consequences for that family. So, if you’re going full isolation, that means
the collapse of the economical system in the country. I will publish another video about this and
what’s happening in the other countries and countries that are taking advantage of this
against other countries. If we reach the situation where everybody
has to stay at home and people cannot feed their children, there’s going to be some civil
tumults. The army is going to be on the streets and
we’re going to get to that situation that nobody wants. The other way around, if we are very liberal
like the UK started doing at the beginning (now they’re changing a little bit their approach)
and we say: “you know, whoever has to die has to die, 80% of the people is not going
to be severely affected. So let’s not take any precaution.”. That’s another approach that can be taken,
but then we need to say goodbye to a lot of people, because this Virus will spread and
in South Africa is going to take a lot, a lot of people. So, I think that we need to balance the two. We need to have certain regulations from the
government, very quickly, speed is of essence and all of us need to be extremely cautious
in how we behave and to not be infected by everybody else. We need to assume that everybody’s infected. We need to assume that all the streets and
the surfaces, everything is infected. In Italy at the moment, they are disinfecting
the streets. In China, they’re disinfecting the streets. So, when you come in (the house), you can
bring in the virus into the house just with your shoes. That’s how it works. Again, I’m going to publish a course about
this, so subscribe to the channel to get a notification when I do so. Share this video with people that you love,
people that you care. Share it as much as possible so people are
aware of the situation. I hope this has been useful and I’ll see you
in the next videos. Thank you for watching.

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